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CS Luceafarul Oradea vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
10/6/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 10Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea60%
×Draw21%
Sportul Snagov18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.97
Sportul Snagov
0.97

CS Luceafarul Oradea creates 103% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

creates per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.16
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Luceafarul Oradea ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CS Luceafarul Oradea or draw
82%
CS Luceafarul Oradea or Sportul Snagov
79%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
40%

Winning margin

CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
36%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
86%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
58%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
31%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
62%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
25%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
77%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Luceafarul Oradea at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 2.16 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
60%
level
21%
Sportul Snagov scores more
18%

CS Luceafarul Oradea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CS Luceafarul Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Luceafarul Oradea vs Sportul Snagov

CS Luceafarul Oradea and Sportul Snagov drew 1-1 in Liga II on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Luceafărul Felix (Sânmartin).