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CS Khniss vs Hammam-Sousse — Cup 2019

CS Khniss
CS Khniss
FT
0 – 2
Hammam-Sousse
Hammam-Sousse
5/23/2021CupCup · Preliminary RoundStade de Footbal de Khniss

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CS Khniss27%
×Draw31%
Hammam-Sousse43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Khniss
0.83
Hammam-Sousse
1.13

Hammam-Sousse creates 36% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

CS Khniss
0.67
Hammam-Sousse
1.25

allows per match

CS Khniss
1.00
Hammam-Sousse
1.00

finishing

CS Khniss+0.00on par
Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Khniss ↓

Hammam-Sousse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CS Khniss or draw
57%
CS Khniss or Hammam-Sousse
69%
Draw or Hammam-Sousse
73%

Winning margin

CS Khniss wins by 2+
9%
Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CS Khniss 1+ goals
56%
CS Khniss 2+ goals
20%
CS Khniss 3+ goals
5%
Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
68%
Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
31%
Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CS Khniss (draw refunded)
39%
Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Khniss at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Hammam-Sousse away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Khniss attack 0.67 + Hammam-Sousse defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Hammam-Sousse attack 1.25 + CS Khniss defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CS Khniss scores more
27%
level
31%
Hammam-Sousse scores more
43%

Hammam-Sousse at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hammam-Sousse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CS Khniss 0–2 Hammam-Sousse

Hammam-Sousse beat CS Khniss 2-0 in Cup on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Footbal de Khniss in Khniss.