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CS Hammam-Lif vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
O. Hanzouli 87' (OG)
F. Sekkouhi 22'
12/16/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Hammam-Lif Gazon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif60%
×Draw27%
Sporting Ben Arous14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.46
Sporting Ben Arous
0.55

CS Hammam-Lif creates 165% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 46 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
86%
CS Hammam-Lif or Sporting Ben Arous
73%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
40%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
31%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
77%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
43%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
42%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
11%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
81%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
60%
level
27%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
14%

CS Hammam-Lif at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
F. Sekkouhi
87'
O. HanzouliOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Hammam-Lif 2–0 Sporting Ben Arous

CS Hammam-Lif beat Sporting Ben Arous 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 16, 2023.

Goals: F. Sekkouhi (22'), O. Hanzouli (87' o.g.).

The match was played at Hammam-Lif Gazon in Hammam-Lif.