Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CS Hammam-Lif vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
11/19/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Hammam-Lif Gazon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif59%
×Draw26%
Oued Ellil15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.52
Oued Ellil
0.61

CS Hammam-Lif creates 149% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 46 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
85%
CS Hammam-Lif or Oued Ellil
74%
Draw or Oued Ellil
41%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
32%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
78%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
45%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
20%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
46%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
13%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
80%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
59%
level
26%
Oued Ellil scores more
15%

CS Hammam-Lif at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Hammam-Lif vs Oued Ellil

CS Hammam-Lif beat Oued Ellil 4-0 in Ligue 2 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Hammam-Lif Gazon in Hammam-Lif.