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CS Hammam-Lif vs JS Kairouanaise — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
4/14/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Hammam-Lif Gazon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif51%
×Draw28%
JS Kairouanaise20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.33
JS Kairouanaise
0.72

CS Hammam-Lif creates 85% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
JS Kairouanaise
0.87

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
JS Kairouanaise
1.00

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
80%
CS Hammam-Lif or JS Kairouanaise
72%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
49%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
25%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
74%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
38%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
15%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
51%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
16%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
72%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
51%
level
28%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
20%

CS Hammam-Lif at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Hammam-Lif 0–0 JS Kairouanaise

CS Hammam-Lif and JS Kairouanaise drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Hammam-Lif Gazon in Hammam-Lif.