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CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
1 – 0
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
10/29/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Hammam-Lif Gazon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif45%
×Draw29%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.23
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.87

CS Hammam-Lif creates 41% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 23 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
74%
CS Hammam-Lif or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
71%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
55%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
20%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
71%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
35%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
13%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
58%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
22%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
63%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
45%
level
29%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
26%

CS Hammam-Lif at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Hammam-Lif vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

CS Hammam-Lif beat Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Hammam-Lif Gazon in Hammam-Lif.