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CS Hammam-Lif vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
2 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
O. Belhaj 77'
F. Amdouni 15'
4/24/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Promotion Round - 3Stade Olympique d'El Menzah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif58%
×Draw27%
Jerba15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.45
Jerba
0.58

CS Hammam-Lif creates 150% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 48 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
Jerba
1.23

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
85%
CS Hammam-Lif or Jerba
73%
Draw or Jerba
42%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
30%
Jerba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
77%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
42%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
18%
Jerba 1+ goals
44%
Jerba 2+ goals
12%
Jerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
80%
Jerba (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jerba attack 0.60 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
58%
level
27%
Jerba scores more
15%

CS Hammam-Lif at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
F. Amdouni
77'
O. Belhaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Hammam-Lif vs Jerba

CS Hammam-Lif beat Jerba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 24, 2021.

Goals: F. Amdouni (15'), O. Belhaj (77').

The match was played at Stade Olympique d'El Menzah in Tunis.