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CS Hammam-Lif vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
1/18/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif57%
×Draw27%
EM Mahdia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.47
EM Mahdia
0.65

CS Hammam-Lif creates 126% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
84%
CS Hammam-Lif or EM Mahdia
73%
Draw or EM Mahdia
43%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
29%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
77%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
43%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
18%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
48%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
14%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
78%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.47

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
57%
level
27%
EM Mahdia scores more
16%

CS Hammam-Lif at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Hammam-Lif vs EM Mahdia

EM Mahdia beat CS Hammam-Lif 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 18, 2026.