CS Hammam-Lif 1–0 EGS Gafsa: Result & Stats

CS Hammam-Lif

FT

1 – 0

EGS Gafsa

G. Sghaier 32'

4/21/2021

Ligue 2 · Promotion Round - 2Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif55%

×Draw26%

EGS Gafsa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Hammam-LifExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.73

CS Hammam-Lif

1.48

EGS Gafsa

0.73

CS Hammam-Lif creates 103% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 36 away

1.67

creates per match

0.89

0.57

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif

1.67

EGS Gafsa

0.89

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif

0.57

EGS Gafsa

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw

82%

CS Hammam-Lif or EGS Gafsa

74%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

45%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+

28%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals

77%

CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals

43%

CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals

19%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

52%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

17%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)

75%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more

55%

level

26%

EGS Gafsa scores more

18%

CS Hammam-Lif at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

G. Sghaier

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff