CS Dinamo București 0–2 Metalul Buzău

CS Dinamo București

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Metalul Buzău

A. Saim Tudor 64'

C. Bortoneanu 18'

11/8/2025

Liga II · Round 13CNF Buftea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Dinamo București31%

×Draw27%

Metalul Buzău42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Dinamo BucureștiExpected goals in this matchMetalul Buzău

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.35

CS Dinamo București

1.13

Metalul Buzău

1.35

Metalul Buzău creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 27 away

0.93

creates per match

1.44

1.27

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CS Dinamo București

0.93

Metalul Buzău

1.44

allows per match

CS Dinamo București

1.27

Metalul Buzău

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Dinamo București+0.00on par

Metalul Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Dinamo București ↓

Metalul Buzău →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CS Dinamo București or draw

58%

CS Dinamo București or Metalul Buzău

73%

Draw or Metalul Buzău

69%

Winning margin

CS Dinamo București wins by 2+

13%

Metalul Buzău wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CS Dinamo București 1+ goals

68%

CS Dinamo București 2+ goals

31%

CS Dinamo București 3+ goals

11%

Metalul Buzău 1+ goals

74%

Metalul Buzău 2+ goals

39%

Metalul Buzău 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CS Dinamo București (draw refunded)

43%

Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Dinamo București at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Metalul Buzău away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Dinamo București attack 0.93 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Metalul Buzău attack 1.44 + CS Dinamo București defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CS Dinamo București scores more

31%

level

27%

Metalul Buzău scores more

42%

Metalul Buzău at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metalul Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

C. Bortoneanu

27'

42'

64'

A. Saim Tudor

75'

D. Moldovan

90+4'

CS

Metalul

25

27

4

5

33

98

⚽

Tudor

99

⚽

10

97

28

9

CS Dinamo București substitutes

CorjencoAnghelDemiciBodronKyrychenkoBurlacuMunteanuIosofacheNicolae

Manager: V. Stan

Metalul Buzău substitutes

1Toader3Danuleasa6Hanada7Dumitru8Oprea11Moldovan15Gavric19Bancila80Stancovici

Match Recap: CS Dinamo București vs Metalul Buzău

Metalul Buzău beat CS Dinamo București 2-0 in Liga II on November 8, 2025.

Goals: C. Bortoneanu (18'), A. Saim Tudor (64').

The match was played at CNF Buftea.

CS Dinamo București vs Metalul Buzău — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: CS Dinamo București vs Metalul Buzău