CS Constantine 1–1 USM Alger: Result & Stats

CS Constantine

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

USM Alger

6/3/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

CS Constantine49%

×Draw28%

USM Alger23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ConstantineExpected goals in this matchUSM Alger

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.80

CS Constantine

1.32

USM Alger

0.80

CS Constantine creates 65% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 123 away

1.50

creates per match

0.87

0.74

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

CS Constantine

1.50

USM Alger

0.87

allows per match

CS Constantine

0.74

USM Alger

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par

USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

USM Alger →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw

77%

CS Constantine or USM Alger

72%

Draw or USM Alger

51%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+

23%

USM Alger wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals

73%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

38%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

15%

USM Alger 1+ goals

55%

USM Alger 2+ goals

19%

USM Alger 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

68%

USM Alger (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

USM Alger attack 0.87 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CS Constantine scores more

49%

level

28%

USM Alger scores more

23%

CS Constantine at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff