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CS Constantine vs US Souf — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
US Souf
US Souf
3/15/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 20Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Constantine75%
×Draw17%
US Souf8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
2.19
US Souf
0.54

CS Constantine creates 306% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
US Souf
0.33

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
US Souf
2.87

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
US Souf+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

US Souf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
92%
CS Constantine or US Souf
83%
Draw or US Souf
25%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
51%
US Souf wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
89%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
64%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
37%
US Souf 1+ goals
42%
US Souf 2+ goals
10%
US Souf 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
91%
US Souf (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

US Souf away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + US Souf defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.19

US Souf attack 0.33 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

CS Constantine scores more
75%
level
17%
US Souf scores more
8%

CS Constantine at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Constantine vs US Souf

CS Constantine beat US Souf 3-0 in Ligue 1 on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui in Constantine.