CS Constantine 3–3 Tadjenant: Result & Stats

CS Constantine

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Tadjenant

11/10/2018

Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui (Constantine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CS Constantine61%

×Draw23%

Tadjenant16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ConstantineExpected goals in this matchTadjenant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.80

CS Constantine

1.78

Tadjenant

0.80

CS Constantine creates 123% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

0.87

0.74

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

CS Constantine

1.50

Tadjenant

0.87

allows per match

CS Constantine

0.74

Tadjenant

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par

Tadjenant+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

Tadjenant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw

84%

CS Constantine or Tadjenant

77%

Draw or Tadjenant

39%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+

35%

Tadjenant wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals

83%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

53%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

26%

Tadjenant 1+ goals

55%

Tadjenant 2+ goals

19%

Tadjenant 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

79%

Tadjenant (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

Tadjenant away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + Tadjenant defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CS Constantine scores more

61%

level

23%

Tadjenant scores more

16%

CS Constantine at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff