Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CS Constantine vs RC Relizane — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
RC Relizane
RC Relizane
3/12/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CS Constantine65%
×Draw21%
RC Relizane14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
1.94
RC Relizane
0.77

CS Constantine creates 152% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 40 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
RC Relizane
0.80

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
RC Relizane
2.38

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

RC Relizane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
86%
CS Constantine or RC Relizane
79%
Draw or RC Relizane
35%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
39%
RC Relizane wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
86%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
58%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
30%
RC Relizane 1+ goals
54%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
18%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
82%
RC Relizane (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

CS Constantine scores more
65%
level
21%
RC Relizane scores more
14%

CS Constantine at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Constantine vs RC Relizane

CS Constantine beat RC Relizane 5-2 in Ligue 1 on March 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan in Constantine.