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CS Constantine vs Paradou AC — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Paradou AC
Paradou AC
4/6/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

CS Constantine49%
×Draw27%
Paradou AC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
1.41
Paradou AC
0.91

CS Constantine creates 55% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 121 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
Paradou AC
1.08

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
Paradou AC
1.32

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

Paradou AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
76%
CS Constantine or Paradou AC
73%
Draw or Paradou AC
51%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
24%
Paradou AC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
76%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
41%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
17%
Paradou AC 1+ goals
60%
Paradou AC 2+ goals
23%
Paradou AC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
67%
Paradou AC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Paradou AC attack 1.08 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CS Constantine scores more
49%
level
27%
Paradou AC scores more
24%

CS Constantine at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: CS Constantine 2–1 Paradou AC

CS Constantine beat Paradou AC 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui in Constantine.