CS Constantine 0–1 AS AIN Mlila: Result & Stats

CS Constantine

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AS AIN Mlila

M. Hamia 90+3'

1/8/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Abed Hamdani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CS Constantine59%

×Draw24%

AS AIN Mlila17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ConstantineExpected goals in this matchAS AIN Mlila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.76

CS Constantine

1.66

AS AIN Mlila

0.76

CS Constantine creates 118% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 45 away

1.50

creates per match

0.78

0.74

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

CS Constantine

1.50

AS AIN Mlila

0.78

allows per match

CS Constantine

0.74

AS AIN Mlila

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

AS AIN Mlila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw

83%

CS Constantine or AS AIN Mlila

76%

Draw or AS AIN Mlila

41%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+

33%

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals

81%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

49%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

23%

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

53%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

18%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

78%

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CS Constantine scores more

59%

level

24%

AS AIN Mlila scores more

17%

CS Constantine at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Sharaf Eldin Ali← Y. Salhi

39'

F. Amrane← I. Mokadem

54'

B. Dib← M. Yattou

90+3'

M. Hamia

CS

AS

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Khouda

39'▲Sharaf Eldin Ali←▼Y. Salhi

39'▲F. Amrane←▼I. Mokadem

54'▲B. Dib←▼M. Yattou

CS Constantine substitutes

AliAmraneDib

Manager: R. Iaïche

Ligue 1: CS Constantine 0–1 AS AIN Mlila

AS AIN Mlila beat CS Constantine 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 8, 2021.

Goals: M. Hamia (90+3').

The match was played at Stade Abed Hamdani in El-Khroub.

CS Constantine vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: CS Constantine 0–1 AS AIN Mlila