CS Chebba 0–0 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats

CS Chebba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Gabesien

12/9/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal De La Chebba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CS Chebba48%

×Draw30%

Stade Gabesien22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ChebbaExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.72

CS Chebba

1.23

Stade Gabesien

0.72

CS Chebba creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

1.34

creates per match

0.73

0.71

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

CS Chebba

1.34

Stade Gabesien

0.73

allows per match

CS Chebba

0.71

Stade Gabesien

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Chebba+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Chebba ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CS Chebba or draw

78%

CS Chebba or Stade Gabesien

70%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

52%

Winning margin

CS Chebba wins by 2+

22%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CS Chebba 1+ goals

71%

CS Chebba 2+ goals

35%

CS Chebba 3+ goals

13%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

51%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

16%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CS Chebba (draw refunded)

69%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Chebba at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Chebba attack 1.34 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + CS Chebba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Chebba scores more

48%

level

30%

Stade Gabesien scores more

22%

CS Chebba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Chebba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff