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CS Chebba vs M'saken — Cup 2019

CS Chebba
CS Chebba
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
M'saken
M'saken
1/18/2025CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Municipal De La Chebba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CS Chebba38%
×Draw30%
M'saken32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Chebba
1.11
M'saken
1.00

CS Chebba creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

CS Chebba
0.83
M'saken
1.00

allows per match

CS Chebba
1.00
M'saken
1.40

finishing

CS Chebba+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Chebba ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Chebba or draw
68%
CS Chebba or M'saken
70%
Draw or M'saken
62%

Winning margin

CS Chebba wins by 2+
15%
M'saken wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CS Chebba 1+ goals
67%
CS Chebba 2+ goals
30%
CS Chebba 3+ goals
10%
M'saken 1+ goals
63%
M'saken 2+ goals
26%
M'saken 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CS Chebba (draw refunded)
54%
M'saken (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Chebba at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

M'saken away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Chebba attack 0.83 + M'saken defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

M'saken attack 1.00 + CS Chebba defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CS Chebba scores more
38%
level
30%
M'saken scores more
32%

CS Chebba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CS Chebba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CS Chebba 0–2 M'saken

M'saken beat CS Chebba 2-0 in Cup on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De La Chebba in Chebba.