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CS Chebba vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

CS Chebba
CS Chebba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
11/15/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CS Chebba51%
×Draw29%
EM Mahdia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Chebba
1.31
EM Mahdia
0.72

CS Chebba creates 82% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

CS Chebba
1.34
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

CS Chebba
0.71
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

CS Chebba+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Chebba ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CS Chebba or draw
79%
CS Chebba or EM Mahdia
71%
Draw or EM Mahdia
49%

Winning margin

CS Chebba wins by 2+
24%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CS Chebba 1+ goals
73%
CS Chebba 2+ goals
38%
CS Chebba 3+ goals
14%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
51%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
16%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Chebba (draw refunded)
71%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Chebba at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Chebba attack 1.34 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + CS Chebba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CS Chebba scores more
51%
level
29%
EM Mahdia scores more
21%

CS Chebba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CS Chebba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Chebba 1–1 EM Mahdia

CS Chebba and EM Mahdia drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on November 15, 2025.