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CS Chebba vs CO Medenine — Ligue 2 2020

CS Chebba
CS Chebba
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CO Medenine
CO Medenine
11/25/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal De La Chebba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

CS Chebba53%
×Draw28%
CO Medenine19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Chebba
1.36
CO Medenine
0.69

CS Chebba creates 97% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

creates per match

CS Chebba
1.34
CO Medenine
0.67

allows per match

CS Chebba
0.71
CO Medenine
1.39

finishing

CS Chebba+0.00on par
CO Medenine+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Chebba ↓

CO Medenine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Chebba or draw
81%
CS Chebba or CO Medenine
72%
Draw or CO Medenine
47%

Winning margin

CS Chebba wins by 2+
26%
CO Medenine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CS Chebba 1+ goals
74%
CS Chebba 2+ goals
39%
CS Chebba 3+ goals
16%
CO Medenine 1+ goals
50%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
15%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CS Chebba (draw refunded)
74%
CO Medenine (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Chebba at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

CO Medenine away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Chebba attack 1.34 + CO Medenine defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

CO Medenine attack 0.67 + CS Chebba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CS Chebba scores more
53%
level
28%
CO Medenine scores more
19%

CS Chebba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CS Chebba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Chebba 4–1 CO Medenine

CS Chebba beat CO Medenine 4-1 in Ligue 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal De La Chebba in Chebba.