CS Bendje 1–2 Vautour Club: Result & Stats

CS Bendje

FT

1 – 2

Vautour Club

11/23/2024

Championnat D1 · Round 1Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Bendje32%

×Draw28%

Vautour Club40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BendjeExpected goals in this matchVautour Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.26

CS Bendje

1.08

Vautour Club

1.26

Vautour Club creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

0.95

creates per match

1.36

1.16

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

CS Bendje

0.95

Vautour Club

1.36

allows per match

CS Bendje

1.16

Vautour Club

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Bendje+0.00on par

Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Bendje ↓

Vautour Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CS Bendje or draw

60%

CS Bendje or Vautour Club

72%

Draw or Vautour Club

68%

Winning margin

CS Bendje wins by 2+

12%

Vautour Club wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

CS Bendje 1+ goals

66%

CS Bendje 2+ goals

29%

CS Bendje 3+ goals

10%

Vautour Club 1+ goals

72%

Vautour Club 2+ goals

36%

Vautour Club 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CS Bendje (draw refunded)

44%

Vautour Club (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Bendje at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Bendje attack 0.95 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + CS Bendje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CS Bendje scores more

32%

level

28%

Vautour Club scores more

40%

Vautour Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff