CS Bendje 0–0 Stade Mandji: Result & Stats

CS Bendje

FT

0 – 0

Stade Mandji

2/25/2023

Championnat D1 · Round 10Stade Pierre Claver Divounguy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Bendje30%

×Draw31%

Stade Mandji38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BendjeExpected goals in this matchStade Mandji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.05

CS Bendje

0.90

Stade Mandji

1.05

Stade Mandji creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

0.95

creates per match

0.94

1.16

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

CS Bendje

0.95

Stade Mandji

0.94

allows per match

CS Bendje

1.16

Stade Mandji

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Bendje+0.00on par

Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Bendje ↓

Stade Mandji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CS Bendje or draw

62%

CS Bendje or Stade Mandji

69%

Draw or Stade Mandji

70%

Winning margin

CS Bendje wins by 2+

11%

Stade Mandji wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CS Bendje 1+ goals

59%

CS Bendje 2+ goals

23%

CS Bendje 3+ goals

6%

Stade Mandji 1+ goals

65%

Stade Mandji 2+ goals

28%

Stade Mandji 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Bendje (draw refunded)

44%

Stade Mandji (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Bendje at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Bendje attack 0.95 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + CS Bendje defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CS Bendje scores more

30%

level

31%

Stade Mandji scores more

38%

Stade Mandji at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff