CS Balotesti 1–3 Uta Arad: Result & Stats | Liga II

CS Balotesti

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Uta Arad

4/6/2019

Liga II · Round 28Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti27%

×Draw25%

Uta Arad48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BalotestiExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.56

CS Balotesti

1.11

Uta Arad

1.56

Uta Arad creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

0.89

creates per match

1.45

1.68

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CS Balotesti

0.89

Uta Arad

1.45

allows per match

CS Balotesti

1.68

Uta Arad

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw

52%

CS Balotesti or Uta Arad

75%

Draw or Uta Arad

73%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+

10%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals

67%

CS Balotesti 2+ goals

30%

CS Balotesti 3+ goals

10%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

79%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

46%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)

36%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Uta Arad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Balotesti scores more

27%

level

25%

Uta Arad scores more

48%

Uta Arad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff