CS Balotesti 2–1 Pandurii TG JIU: Result & Stats

CS Balotesti

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Pandurii TG JIU

10/20/2018

Liga II · Round 13Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti44%

×Draw24%

Pandurii TG JIU31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BalotestiExpected goals in this matchPandurii TG JIU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.31

CS Balotesti

1.61

Pandurii TG JIU

1.31

CS Balotesti creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

0.89

creates per match

0.95

1.68

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

CS Balotesti

0.89

Pandurii TG JIU

0.95

allows per match

CS Balotesti

1.68

Pandurii TG JIU

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw

69%

CS Balotesti or Pandurii TG JIU

76%

Draw or Pandurii TG JIU

56%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+

23%

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals

80%

CS Balotesti 2+ goals

48%

CS Balotesti 3+ goals

22%

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

73%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

38%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)

59%

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CS Balotesti scores more

44%

level

24%

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

31%

CS Balotesti at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CS Balotesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff