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CS Balotesti vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
11/17/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti31%
×Draw28%
FC Politehnica Timisoara41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Balotesti
1.06
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.25

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

CS Balotesti
0.89
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

CS Balotesti
1.68
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw
59%
CS Balotesti or FC Politehnica Timisoara
72%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
69%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+
12%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals
65%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
29%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
9%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
71%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
36%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
44%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CS Balotesti scores more
31%
level
28%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
41%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Balotesti vs FC Politehnica Timisoara

CS Balotesti beat FC Politehnica Timisoara 1-0 in Liga II on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti).