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CS Balotesti vs CS Mioveni — Liga II 2018

CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
2/23/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 22Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti25%
×Draw27%
CS Mioveni48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Balotesti
0.95
CS Mioveni
1.44

CS Mioveni creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

CS Balotesti
0.89
CS Mioveni
1.19

allows per match

CS Balotesti
1.68
CS Mioveni
1.01

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par
CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

CS Mioveni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw
52%
CS Balotesti or CS Mioveni
73%
Draw or CS Mioveni
75%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+
9%
CS Mioveni wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals
61%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
25%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
7%
CS Mioveni 1+ goals
76%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
42%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
34%
CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

CS Mioveni away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + CS Mioveni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

CS Mioveni attack 1.19 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CS Balotesti scores more
25%
level
27%
CS Mioveni scores more
48%

CS Mioveni at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CS Mioveni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CS Balotesti 0–2 CS Mioveni

CS Mioveni beat CS Balotesti 2-0 in Liga II on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti).