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CS Balotesti vs CS Luceafarul Oradea — Liga II 2018

CS Balotesti
CS Balotesti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CS Luceafarul Oradea
CS Luceafarul Oradea
4/20/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 31Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti45%
×Draw25%
CS Luceafarul Oradea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Balotesti
1.57
CS Luceafarul Oradea
1.26

CS Balotesti creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

CS Balotesti
0.89
CS Luceafarul Oradea
0.84

allows per match

CS Balotesti
1.68
CS Luceafarul Oradea
2.26

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par
CS Luceafarul Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

CS Luceafarul Oradea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw
69%
CS Balotesti or CS Luceafarul Oradea
75%
Draw or CS Luceafarul Oradea
55%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+
22%
CS Luceafarul Oradea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals
79%
CS Balotesti 2+ goals
46%
CS Balotesti 3+ goals
21%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 1+ goals
72%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 2+ goals
36%
CS Luceafarul Oradea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)
59%
CS Luceafarul Oradea (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

CS Luceafarul Oradea away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + CS Luceafarul Oradea defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.57

CS Luceafarul Oradea attack 0.84 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CS Balotesti scores more
45%
level
25%
CS Luceafarul Oradea scores more
31%

CS Balotesti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CS Balotesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Balotesti vs CS Luceafarul Oradea

CS Balotesti and CS Luceafarul Oradea drew 0-0 in Liga II on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti).