CS Balotesti 4–0 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats

CS Balotesti

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arges Pitesti

12/1/2018

Liga II · Round 20Stadionul Baloteşti (Baloteşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CS Balotesti25%

×Draw28%

Arges Pitesti47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS BalotestiExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.35

CS Balotesti

0.91

Arges Pitesti

1.35

Arges Pitesti creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

0.89

creates per match

1.03

1.68

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

CS Balotesti

0.89

Arges Pitesti

1.03

allows per match

CS Balotesti

1.68

Arges Pitesti

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Balotesti+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Balotesti ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CS Balotesti or draw

53%

CS Balotesti or Arges Pitesti

72%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

75%

Winning margin

CS Balotesti wins by 2+

9%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

CS Balotesti 1+ goals

60%

CS Balotesti 2+ goals

23%

CS Balotesti 3+ goals

6%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

74%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

39%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CS Balotesti (draw refunded)

35%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Balotesti at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Balotesti attack 0.89 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + CS Balotesti defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CS Balotesti scores more

25%

level

28%

Arges Pitesti scores more

47%

Arges Pitesti at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff