CS Afumati 2–1 Progresul Fundulea: Result & Stats

CS Afumati

FT

2 – 1

Progresul Fundulea

3/23/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadionul Afumaţi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CS Afumati66%

×Draw19%

Progresul Fundulea15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS AfumatiExpected goals in this matchProgresul Fundulea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.00

CS Afumati

2.29

Progresul Fundulea

1.00

CS Afumati creates 129% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 42 away

2.86

creates per match

1.31

0.68

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

CS Afumati

2.86

Progresul Fundulea

1.31

allows per match

CS Afumati

0.68

Progresul Fundulea

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Progresul Fundulea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Afumati ↓

Progresul Fundulea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

CS Afumati or draw

85%

CS Afumati or Progresul Fundulea

81%

Draw or Progresul Fundulea

34%

Winning margin

CS Afumati wins by 2+

43%

Progresul Fundulea wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CS Afumati 1+ goals

90%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

66%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

40%

Progresul Fundulea 1+ goals

63%

Progresul Fundulea 2+ goals

26%

Progresul Fundulea 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

81%

Progresul Fundulea (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Afumati at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Progresul Fundulea away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Afumati attack 2.86 + Progresul Fundulea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.29

Progresul Fundulea attack 1.31 + CS Afumati defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CS Afumati scores more

66%

level

19%

Progresul Fundulea scores more

15%

CS Afumati at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff