CS Afumati 2–0 Dunarea Calarasi: Result & Stats

CS Afumati

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dunarea Calarasi

5/11/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadionul Afumaţi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

CS Afumati63%

×Draw20%

Dunarea Calarasi17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS AfumatiExpected goals in this matchDunarea Calarasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.03

CS Afumati

2.17

Dunarea Calarasi

1.03

CS Afumati creates 111% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

2.86

creates per match

1.38

0.68

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

CS Afumati

2.86

Dunarea Calarasi

1.38

allows per match

CS Afumati

0.68

Dunarea Calarasi

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Afumati ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

CS Afumati or draw

83%

CS Afumati or Dunarea Calarasi

80%

Draw or Dunarea Calarasi

37%

Winning margin

CS Afumati wins by 2+

40%

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CS Afumati 1+ goals

89%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

64%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

36%

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

64%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

28%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

79%

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Afumati at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Afumati attack 2.86 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.38 + CS Afumati defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CS Afumati scores more

63%

level

20%

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

17%

CS Afumati at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CS Afumati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff