CS Afumati 1–2 Bihor Oradea: Result & Stats

CS Afumati

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bihor Oradea

Ș. Duțu 45+1'

A. Chirițoiu 49'

R. Farcaş 33'

3/1/2025

Liga II · Round 19Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Sintetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

CS Afumati32%

×Draw26%

Bihor Oradea41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS AfumatiExpected goals in this matchBihor Oradea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.38

CS Afumati

1.18

Bihor Oradea

1.38

Bihor Oradea creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.07

creates per match

1.39

1.37

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CS Afumati

1.07

Bihor Oradea

1.39

allows per match

CS Afumati

1.37

Bihor Oradea

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Afumati+0.00on par

Bihor Oradea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Afumati ↓

Bihor Oradea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CS Afumati or draw

59%

CS Afumati or Bihor Oradea

74%

Draw or Bihor Oradea

68%

Winning margin

CS Afumati wins by 2+

13%

Bihor Oradea wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CS Afumati 1+ goals

69%

CS Afumati 2+ goals

33%

CS Afumati 3+ goals

12%

Bihor Oradea 1+ goals

75%

Bihor Oradea 2+ goals

40%

Bihor Oradea 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

CS Afumati (draw refunded)

44%

Bihor Oradea (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Afumati at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

Bihor Oradea away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Afumati attack 1.07 + Bihor Oradea defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bihor Oradea attack 1.39 + CS Afumati defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CS Afumati scores more

32%

level

26%

Bihor Oradea scores more

41%

Bihor Oradea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bihor Oradea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

45+1'

49'

52'

52'

R. Petculescu← M. Preda

57'

Ș. Gheoroae← P. Mouasso

66'

A. Ionica

68'

S. Cucu

68'

S. Dutu

69'

71'

80'

81'

88'

R. Bobocea← A. Ionică

88'

V. Ghineț← R. Petculescu

90+1'

90+5'

A. Gal

90+3'

A. Moga← D. Ubbink

CS

Bihor

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Neagu

52'▲A. Ionică←▼D. Olariu

52'▲R. Petculescu←▼M. Preda

57'▲Ș. Gheoroae←▼P. Mouasso

88'▲R. Bobocea←▼A. Ionică

88'▲V. Ghineț←▼R. Petculescu

CS Afumati substitutes

IonicăPetculescuGheoroaeBoboceaGhineț

Manager: G. Ghiț

71'▲I. Ban←▼A. Chirițoiu

81'▲A. Băican←▼R. Gunie

90+3'▲A. Moga←▼D. Ubbink

Bihor Oradea substitutes

BanBăicanMoga