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Crystal Palace W vs Watford W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
FT
5 – 1
Watford W
Watford W
1/8/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundHayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Crystal Palace W64%
×Draw17%
Watford W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace W
2.85
Watford W
1.55

Crystal Palace W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace W
3.57
Watford W
2.25

allows per match

Crystal Palace W
0.86
Watford W
2.13

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par
Watford W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

Watford W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw
81%
Crystal Palace W or Watford W
83%
Draw or Watford W
36%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
44%
Watford W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
94%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
77%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
53%
Watford W 1+ goals
79%
Watford W 2+ goals
46%
Watford W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
77%
Watford W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Watford W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 3.57 + Watford W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.85

Watford W attack 2.25 + Crystal Palace W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more
64%
level
17%
Watford W scores more
19%

Crystal Palace W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Crystal Palace W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Crystal Palace W 5–1 Watford W

Crystal Palace W beat Watford W 5-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.