Crystal Palace W 3–0 London Bees W: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace W

3 – 0

London Bees W

4/18/2021

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundHayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Crystal Palace W62%

×Draw18%

London Bees W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal Palace WExpected goals in this matchLondon Bees W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.38

Crystal Palace W

2.56

London Bees W

1.38

Crystal Palace W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

3.57

creates per match

1.89

0.86

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Crystal Palace W

3.57

London Bees W

1.89

allows per match

Crystal Palace W

0.86

London Bees W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

London Bees W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

London Bees W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw

81%

Crystal Palace W or London Bees W

82%

Draw or London Bees W

38%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

41%

London Bees W wins by 2+

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

92%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

72%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

46%

London Bees W 1+ goals

75%

London Bees W 2+ goals

40%

London Bees W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

76%

London Bees W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

London Bees W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 3.57 + London Bees W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.56

London Bees W attack 1.89 + Crystal Palace W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more

62%

level

18%

London Bees W scores more

19%

Crystal Palace W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Crystal Palace W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff