Crystal Palace W 0–1 Liverpool W: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool W

3/2/2025

FA WSL · Round 15VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Crystal Palace W26%

×Draw23%

Liverpool W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal Palace WExpected goals in this matchLiverpool W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.88

Crystal Palace W

1.29

Liverpool W

1.88

Liverpool W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 62 away

0.82

creates per match

0.95

2.82

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Crystal Palace W

0.82

Liverpool W

0.95

allows per match

Crystal Palace W

2.82

Liverpool W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Liverpool W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

Liverpool W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw

49%

Crystal Palace W or Liverpool W

77%

Draw or Liverpool W

74%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

11%

Liverpool W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

72%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

37%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

14%

Liverpool W 1+ goals

85%

Liverpool W 2+ goals

56%

Liverpool W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

34%

Liverpool W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Liverpool W away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 0.82 + Liverpool W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Liverpool W attack 0.95 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more

26%

level

23%

Liverpool W scores more

51%

Liverpool W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Liverpool W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff