Crystal Palace W 6–0 Chatham Town W: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace W

6 – 0

Chatham Town W

12/10/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundVBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Crystal Palace W78%

×Draw12%

Chatham Town W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal Palace WExpected goals in this matchChatham Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.68

1.33

Crystal Palace W

3.68

Chatham Town W

1.33

Crystal Palace W creates 177% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

3.57

creates per match

1.80

0.86

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Crystal Palace W

3.57

Chatham Town W

1.80

allows per match

Crystal Palace W

0.86

Chatham Town W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Chatham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace W ↓

Chatham Town W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Crystal Palace W or draw

90%

Crystal Palace W or Chatham Town W

88%

Draw or Chatham Town W

22%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

61%

Chatham Town W wins by 2+

Team goals

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

97%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

87%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

69%

Chatham Town W 1+ goals

74%

Chatham Town W 2+ goals

38%

Chatham Town W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

89%

Chatham Town W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace W at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Chatham Town W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace W attack 3.57 + Chatham Town W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.68

Chatham Town W attack 1.80 + Crystal Palace W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Crystal Palace W scores more

78%

level

12%

Chatham Town W scores more

10%

Crystal Palace W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Crystal Palace W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff