Crystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tottenham

H. Kane 88'

2/25/2018

Premier League · Round 28Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Crystal Palace46%

×Draw25%

Tottenham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.21

Crystal Palace

1.60

Tottenham

1.21

Crystal Palace creates 32% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

1.59

creates per match

1.17

1.25

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.59

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.25

Tottenham

1.62

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.48scores less

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

71%

Crystal Palace or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

54%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

24%

Tottenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

80%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

47%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

22%

Tottenham 1+ goals

70%

Tottenham 2+ goals

34%

Tottenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

62%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 35 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.59 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Crystal Palace defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

46%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

29%

Crystal Palace at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Kane

Tottenham · F

7.5

Match Events

45'

Mousa Dembélé

66'

Lucas Moura← E. Lamela

80'

Son Heung-Min← M. Dembélé

85'

D. Delaney← J. Tomkins

87'

Lee Chung-Yong← A. Townsend

88'

H. Kane↳ C. Eriksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalTottenham

Overview

23%Possession77%

5Total Shots14

3Corners13

12Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots14

3On Target4

1Off Target6

1Blocked4

4Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

23%Possession77%

205Total Passes662

119Accurate Passes566

58%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1