Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nottingham Forest

W. Hughes 66'

T. Awoniyi 31'

5/28/2023

Premier League · Round 38Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Crystal Palace55%

×Draw23%

Nottingham Forest22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.06

Crystal Palace

1.81

Nottingham Forest

1.06

Crystal Palace creates 71% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.74

creates per match

0.94

1.19

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.74

Nottingham Forest

0.94

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.19

Nottingham Forest

1.88

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.57scores less

Nottingham Forest+0.41scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

78%

Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest

77%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

45%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

31%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

84%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

54%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

27%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

65%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

29%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

71%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.19 · 30 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.74 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 + Crystal Palace defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

55%

level

23%

Nottingham Forest scores more

22%

Crystal Palace at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Olise

Crystal Palace · M

8.6

Match Events

31'

T. Awoniyi↳ M. Gibbs-White

43'

Morgan Gibbs-White

46'

H. Toffolo← Renan Lodi

66'

W. Hughes↳ M. Olise

67'

J. Mateta← O. Édouard

67'

J. McArthur← C. Doucouré

72'

C. Kouyaté← O. Mangala

72'

E. Dennis← W. Boly

80'

Ryan Yates

89'

A. Ayew← M. Gibbs-White

89'

S. Surridge← T. Awoniyi

90'

N. Ahamada← M. Olise

90'

J. Riedewald← W. Hughes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalNottingham

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots7

1.47Expected Goals (xG)0.48

5Corners4

9Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

3On Target4

8Off Target2

4Blocked1

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

538Total Passes276

461Accurate Passes193

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2