Crystal Palace 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

J. Mateta 90+4'

D. Iversen 59' (OG)

Ricardo Pereira 56'

4/1/2023

Premier League · Round 29Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

Crystal Palace38%

×Draw26%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.36

Crystal Palace

1.38

Leicester

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 210 home / 173 away

1.15

creates per match

1.46

1.26

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.15

Leicester

1.46

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.26

Leicester

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

63%

Crystal Palace or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

62%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

17%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

75%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

40%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

16%

Leicester 1+ goals

74%

Leicester 2+ goals

39%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 210 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.15 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leicester attack 1.46 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

38%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

37%

Crystal Palace at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Eze

Crystal Palace · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

Wilfried ZahaPenalty cancelled

29'

Victor Kristiansen

45+1'

J. Ayew← W. Zaha

46'

Ricardo Pereira← Tetê

56'

Ricardo Pereira↳ T. Castagne

59'

D. IversenOwn goal

60'

L. Thomas← V. Kristiansen

68'

Harry Souttar

72'

K. Ịheanachọ← P. Daka

81'

Eberechi Eze

81'

W. Hughes← J. Schlupp

83'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

86'

J. Mateta← O. Édouard

88'

89'

90+5'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalLeicester

Overview

51%Possession49%

31Total Shots3

2.42Expected Goals (xG)0.22

10Corners1

12Fouls16

Shots

31Total Shots3

9On Target2

8Off Target0

14Blocked1

20Inside Box3

11Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

446Total Passes445

357Accurate Passes345

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2