Crystal Palace 1–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leicester

L. Milivojević 39'

12/15/2018

Premier League · Round 17Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Crystal Palace46%

×Draw22%

Leicester32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.59

Crystal Palace

1.96

Leicester

1.59

Crystal Palace creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 6 away

1.61

creates per match

1.92

1.27

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.61

Leicester

1.92

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.27

Leicester

2.30

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.55scores less

Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

68%

Crystal Palace or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

54%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

26%

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

86%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

58%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

31%

Leicester 1+ goals

80%

Leicester 2+ goals

47%

Leicester 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

59%

Leicester (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.27 · 34 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.61 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

Leicester attack 1.92 + Crystal Palace defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

46%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

32%

Crystal Palace at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Kouyaté

Crystal Palace · M

7.8

Match Events

39'

L. Milivojević↳ A. Townsend

45'

James McArthur

46'

R. Ghezzal← J. Maddison

61'

Ricardo Pereira

65'

J. Schlupp← C. Kouyaté

73'

K. Iheanacho← D. Gray

78'

A. Sørloth← J. Ayew

89'

S. Okazaki← M. Albrighton

90'

Vicente Guaita

90+3'

J. Puncheon← M. Meyer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalLeicester

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots12

4Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots12

1On Target2

5Off Target7

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

384Total Passes495

283Accurate Passes388

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

6Offsides3

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Leicester

Crystal Palace beat Leicester 1-0 in Premier League on December 15, 2018.

Goals: L. Milivojević (39').

Leicester controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.

Crystal Palace vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Crystal Palace vs Leicester