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Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Crystal Palace
Crystal Palaceadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
4/9/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsSelhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Crystal Palace40%
×Draw27%
Fiorentina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace
1.35
Fiorentina
1.21

Crystal Palace creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace
1.56
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

Crystal Palace
0.56
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

Crystal Palace+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw
67%
Crystal Palace or Fiorentina
73%
Draw or Fiorentina
60%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+
18%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals
74%
Crystal Palace 2+ goals
39%
Crystal Palace 3+ goals
15%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
70%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
34%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)
54%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.56 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Crystal Palace defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crystal Palace scores more
40%
level
27%
Fiorentina scores more
33%

Crystal Palace at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Crystal Palace 3–0 Fiorentina

Crystal Palace beat Fiorentina 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on April 9, 2026.

The match was played at Selhurst Park in London.