Crystal Palace 0–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

B. Mee 62'

6/29/2020

Premier League · Round 32Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Crystal Palace58%

×Draw22%

Burnley20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.02

Crystal Palace

1.89

Burnley

1.02

Crystal Palace creates 85% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

1.68

creates per match

0.79

1.24

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.68

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.24

Burnley

2.10

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.59scores less

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

80%

Crystal Palace or Burnley

78%

Draw or Burnley

42%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

34%

Burnley wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

85%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

56%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

29%

Burnley 1+ goals

64%

Burnley 2+ goals

27%

Burnley 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

74%

Burnley (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.24 · 32 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.68 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.89

Burnley attack 0.79 + Crystal Palace defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

58%

level

22%

Burnley scores more

20%

Crystal Palace at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

B. Mee

Burnley · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

J. McCarthy← C. Kouyaté

58'

James Tarkowski

61'

James McCarthy

62'

B. Mee↳ A. Westwood

70'

K. Long← J. Cork

77'

M. Meyer← A. Townsend

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalBurnley

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots8

9Corners1

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots8

4On Target4

6Off Target3

7Blocked1

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

479Total Passes354

389Accurate Passes272

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1