Burnley 3–3 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Crystal Palace

M. Cornet 49'

C. Wood 27'

B. Mee 19'

M. Guéhi 41'

C. Benteke 36', 8'

11/20/2021

Premier League · Round 12Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley27%

×Draw25%

Crystal Palace48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.60

Burnley

1.13

Crystal Palace

1.60

Crystal Palace creates 42% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

0.96

creates per match

1.26

1.94

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Crystal Palace

1.26

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Crystal Palace

1.30

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Crystal Palace-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

52%

Burnley or Crystal Palace

75%

Draw or Crystal Palace

73%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

11%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

68%

Burnley 2+ goals

31%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

80%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

47%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

36%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Crystal Palace defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Crystal Palace attack 1.26 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley scores more

27%

level

25%

Crystal Palace scores more

48%

Crystal Palace at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Benteke

Crystal Palace · F

8.5

Match Events

8'

C. Benteke↳ J. Andersen

19'

B. Mee↳ A. Westwood

22'

James Tarkowski

22'

Wilfried Zaha

27'

C. Wood↳ J. Tarkowski

36'

C. Benteke↳ C. Gallagher

41'

M. Guéhi

49'

M. Cornet↳ J. Tarkowski

58'

M. Olise← J. Ayew

59'

Christian Benteke

70'

Ashley Westwood

79'

J. Rodriguez← C. Wood

81'

J. Schlupp← C. Gallagher

84'

M. Vydra← M. Cornet

87'

O. Édouard← L. Milivojević

90+1'

Michael Olise

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyCrystal

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots18

3Corners6

14Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots18

9On Target8

4Off Target6

2Blocked4

10Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

311Total Passes488

213Accurate Passes392

68%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0