Crystal Palace U21 3–1 Birmingham City U21

Crystal Palace U21

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Birmingham City U21

D. Reid 36'

Z. Marsh 31'

R. Esse 17'

D. Isichei 45' (pen)

10/6/2025

League #702 · Round 6VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crystal Palace U2163%

×Draw18%

Birmingham City U2119%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal Palace U21Expected goals in this matchBirmingham City U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.31

Crystal Palace U21

2.50

Birmingham City U21

1.31

Crystal Palace U21 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

1.38

1.25

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Crystal Palace U21

1.75

Birmingham City U21

1.38

allows per match

Crystal Palace U21

1.25

Birmingham City U21

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crystal Palace U21+0.00on par

Birmingham City U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace U21 ↓

Birmingham City U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Crystal Palace U21 or draw

81%

Crystal Palace U21 or Birmingham City U21

82%

Draw or Birmingham City U21

37%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace U21 wins by 2+

41%

Birmingham City U21 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Crystal Palace U21 1+ goals

92%

Crystal Palace U21 2+ goals

71%

Crystal Palace U21 3+ goals

45%

Birmingham City U21 1+ goals

73%

Birmingham City U21 2+ goals

38%

Birmingham City U21 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace U21 (draw refunded)

77%

Birmingham City U21 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace U21 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Birmingham City U21 away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace U21 attack 1.75 + Birmingham City U21 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

Birmingham City U21 attack 1.38 + Crystal Palace U21 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Crystal Palace U21 scores more

63%

level

18%

Birmingham City U21 scores more

19%

Crystal Palace U21 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Crystal Palace U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

R. Esse

23'

B. Wodskou

31'

Z. Marsh↳ R. Esse

36'

D. Reid↳ R. Esse

45+1'

J. Drakes-Thomas

45'

D. IsicheiPenalty

46'

A. Ruiz Rente← B. Bateman

48'

G. King

60'

O. Ellis← G. Wynne

68'

A. Nascimento← R. Esse

81'

S. Williams← A. Agbinone

83'

G. Boakye← B. Wodskou

90+2'

M. Dashi← J. Drakes-Thomas

90+2'

T. Whyte← D. Reid

Crystal

Birmingham

1

3

5

4

2

11

⚽

Isichei

6

▼

Wynne

10

▼

Bateman

7

Mazwi

9

▼

8

1

2

5

4

7

▼

Drakes-Th

6

⚽

▼

Reid

8

Rodney

3

Fasida

21

⚽A

▼

Esse

10

▼

Agbinone

9

⚽

Marsh

Manager: Darren David Powell

68'▲A. Nascimento←▼R. Esse

81'▲S. Williams←▼A. Agbinone

90+2'▲M. Dashi←▼J. Drakes-Thomas

90+2'▲T. Whyte←▼D. Reid

Crystal Palace U21 substitutes

13Izquierdo11Nascimento14Dashi15Williams16Whyte

Manager: Mark John Kennedy

46'▲A. Ruiz Rente←▼B. Bateman

60'▲O. Ellis←▼G. Wynne

83'▲G. Boakye←▼B. Wodskou

Birmingham City U21 substitutes

13Warmington15Boakye14Ahmed12Ellis16Rente