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Crystal Palace U18 vs Arsenal U18 — League #696 2026

Crystal Palace U18
Crystal Palace U18
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Arsenal U18
Arsenal U18
5/16/2026League #696League #696

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Crystal Palace U1838%
×Draw25%
Arsenal U1837%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crystal Palace U18
1.40
Arsenal U18
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Crystal Palace U18
1.80
Arsenal U18
1.75

allows per match

Crystal Palace U18
1.00
Arsenal U18
1.00

finishing

Crystal Palace U18+0.00on par
Arsenal U18+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace U18 ↓

Arsenal U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crystal Palace U18 or draw
63%
Crystal Palace U18 or Arsenal U18
75%
Draw or Arsenal U18
62%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace U18 wins by 2+
17%
Arsenal U18 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crystal Palace U18 1+ goals
75%
Crystal Palace U18 2+ goals
41%
Crystal Palace U18 3+ goals
17%
Arsenal U18 1+ goals
75%
Arsenal U18 2+ goals
40%
Arsenal U18 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace U18 (draw refunded)
51%
Arsenal U18 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace U18 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Arsenal U18 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace U18 attack 1.80 + Arsenal U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Arsenal U18 attack 1.75 + Crystal Palace U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crystal Palace U18 scores more
38%
level
25%
Arsenal U18 scores more
37%

Crystal Palace U18 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crystal Palace U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #696: Crystal Palace U18 2–2 Arsenal U18

Crystal Palace U18 and Arsenal U18 drew 2-2 in League #696 on May 16, 2026.