Crvena Zvezda U19 2–1 Young Boys U19

Crvena Zvezda U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Young Boys U19

J. Mijatović 86'

N. Gojkov 73'

H. Parra 90'

10/4/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Crvena Zvezda U1946%

×Draw25%

Young Boys U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.20

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.58

Young Boys U19

1.20

Crvena Zvezda U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.07

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda U19 or draw

71%

Crvena Zvezda U19 or Young Boys U19

75%

Draw or Young Boys U19

54%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

24%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

79%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

47%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

21%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

70%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

34%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.07 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

46%

level

25%

Young Boys U19 scores more

29%

Crvena Zvezda U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

E. Maluvunu

32'

T. Murith

42'

L. Stojsavljevic

45+2'

A. Cvetkovic

49'

J. Mijatovic

51'

53'

53'

59'

62'

M. Bubanj← J. Šljivić

62'

N. Gojkov← V. Vukojević

72'

E. Schläfli← J. Lüthi

73'

N. Gojkov↳ K. Nedeljković

77'

Daniel Mendes← J. Bomo

77'

D. Mouta← J. Dema

86'

J. Mijatović↳ A. Petrović

89'

N. Vidojević← A. Vukičević

90+2'

L. Lečić← A. Petrović

90'

H. Parra

Crvena

Young

1

4

2

5

3

11

▼

Maluvunu

10

▼

Bomo

7

Deme

6

▼

Dema

8

▼

Rufener

9

▼

Lüthi

12

Draškić

5

▼

Vukičević

2

A

Nedeljkov

4

Milosavlj

3

Stojsavlj

7

▼

Šljivić

8

A

▼

Petrović

15

Cvetković

11

Maksimovi

9

⚽

Mijatović

16

▼

Vukojević

Manager: N. Milijaš

62'▲M. Bubanj←▼J. Šljivić

62'▲N. Gojkov←▼V. Vukojević

89'▲N. Vidojević←▼A. Vukičević

90+2'▲L. Lečić←▼A. Petrović

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

17Bubanj14Gojkov6Vidojević10Lečić1Marinković20Vasilić19Tegeltija

Manager: A. Niederhäuser

53'▲H. Parra←▼E. Rufener

53'▲T. Jost←▼E. Maluvunu

72'▲E. Schläfli←▼J. Lüthi

77'▲Daniel Mendes←▼J. Bomo

77'▲D. Mouta←▼J. Dema

Young Boys U19 substitutes

15Parra14Jost12Schläfli16Mendes13Mouta18Bracher17Dalipi