Crvena Zvezda U19 1–1 Bayern München U19

Crvena Zvezda U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bayern München U19

A. Lukić 36'

O. Meier 54'

11/26/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Crvena Zvezda U1937%

×Draw25%

Bayern München U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.46

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.43

Bayern München U19

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.07

creates per match

1.84

1.07

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Bayern München U19

1.84

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

Bayern München U19

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda U19 or draw

62%

Crvena Zvezda U19 or Bayern München U19

75%

Draw or Bayern München U19

63%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

17%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

76%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

42%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

17%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

77%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

43%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.07 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bayern München U19 attack 1.84 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

37%

level

25%

Bayern München U19 scores more

38%

Bayern München U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

A. Lukić↳ A. Radulović

43'

S. Mitrovic

53'

I. Babic

54'

O. Meier

62'

A. Lukic

63'

M. Bacanin← P. Piplića

65'

M. Bacanin

84'

M. Cuni← J. Herrmann

90+1'

M. Lazetić← I. Babić

Crvena

Bayern

18

5

2

4

17

22

25

⚽

Meier

10

▼

9

20

15

1

6

5

⚽

3

2

8

7

10

A

Radulović

9

▼

Piplića

4

Matić

11

▼

Babić

Manager: S. Đorđević

63'▲M. Bacanin←▼P. Piplića

90+1'▲M. Lazetić←▼I. Babić

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

17Bacanin18Lazetić12Ćopić15Savić16Pisar14Ilic13Pešović

Manager: M. Demichelis

84'▲M. Cuni←▼J. Herrmann

Bayern München U19 substitutes

21Cuni12Mihaljevic1Mayer16Lawrence14Hofmann13Halbich7Andersson