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Crvena Zvezda MML vs Zvezdara — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
FT
0 – 3
Zvezdara
Zvezdara
11/4/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 15Stadion Mali Mokri Lug

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML40%
×Draw26%
Zvezdara34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.38
Zvezdara
1.25

Crvena Zvezda MML creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 99 away

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.29
Zvezdara
1.32

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.18
Zvezdara
1.46

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par
Zvezdara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

Zvezdara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw
66%
Crvena Zvezda MML or Zvezdara
74%
Draw or Zvezdara
60%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
19%
Zvezdara wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
75%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
40%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
16%
Zvezdara 1+ goals
71%
Zvezdara 2+ goals
36%
Zvezdara 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
54%
Zvezdara (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Zvezdara away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + Zvezdara defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zvezdara attack 1.32 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
40%
level
26%
Zvezdara scores more
34%

Crvena Zvezda MML at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda MML will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Crvena Zvezda MML 0–3 Zvezdara

Zvezdara beat Crvena Zvezda MML 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mali Mokri Lug in Beograde.