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Crvena Zvezda MML vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
FT
0 – 2
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
4/4/2021Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 26Stadion Mali Mokri Lug

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML40%
×Draw27%
Stepojevac Vaga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.31
Stepojevac Vaga
1.15

Crvena Zvezda MML creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 85 away

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.29
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.18
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw
67%
Crvena Zvezda MML or Stepojevac Vaga
73%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
60%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
18%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
73%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
38%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
14%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
68%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
32%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
55%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
40%
level
27%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
33%

Crvena Zvezda MML at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda MML will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Crvena Zvezda MML 0–2 Stepojevac Vaga

Stepojevac Vaga beat Crvena Zvezda MML 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Mali Mokri Lug in Beograde.