Crvena Zvezda MML 0–2 OFK Beograd: Result & Stats

Crvena Zvezda MML

FT

0 – 2

OFK Beograd

4/28/2021

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 31Stadion Mali Mokri Lug

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML31%

×Draw27%

OFK Beograd42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda MMLExpected goals in this matchOFK Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.37

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.15

OFK Beograd

1.37

OFK Beograd creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 57 away

1.29

creates per match

1.56

1.18

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.29

OFK Beograd

1.56

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML

1.18

OFK Beograd

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

OFK Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw

58%

Crvena Zvezda MML or OFK Beograd

73%

Draw or OFK Beograd

69%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+

13%

OFK Beograd wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals

68%

Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals

32%

Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals

11%

OFK Beograd 1+ goals

75%

OFK Beograd 2+ goals

40%

OFK Beograd 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)

43%

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + OFK Beograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

OFK Beograd attack 1.56 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more

31%

level

27%

OFK Beograd scores more

42%

OFK Beograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff