Cruzeiro W 2–3 Santos W: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Santos W

Rafa Andrade 76'

Byanca Brasil 3'

Ketlen 86', 81'

Tainá Maranhão 65'

5/6/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Cruzeiro W42%

×Draw23%

Santos W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cruzeiro WExpected goals in this matchSantos W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.54

Cruzeiro W

1.73

Santos W

1.54

Cruzeiro W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 58 away

1.94

creates per match

1.83

1.26

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cruzeiro W

1.94

Santos W

1.83

allows per match

Cruzeiro W

1.26

Santos W

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cruzeiro W+0.00on par

Santos W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro W ↓

Santos W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Cruzeiro W or draw

66%

Cruzeiro W or Santos W

77%

Draw or Santos W

58%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro W wins by 2+

22%

Santos W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cruzeiro W 1+ goals

82%

Cruzeiro W 2+ goals

52%

Cruzeiro W 3+ goals

25%

Santos W 1+ goals

79%

Santos W 2+ goals

45%

Santos W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro W (draw refunded)

55%

Santos W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro W at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Santos W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro W attack 1.94 + Santos W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.73

Santos W attack 1.83 + Cruzeiro W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cruzeiro W scores more

42%

level

23%

Santos W scores more

34%

Cruzeiro W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cruzeiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Byanca Brasil

35'

E. Stabile

45'

Yaya

45+4'

Tayla

46'

Ana Carla← Yaya

46'

Tainá Maranhão← E. Stábile

48'

Rafa Andrade

55'

Camila Ambrozio

64'

65'

70'

70'

76'

77'

Jane← Thaisinha

81'

Larissa Vasconcelos← Byanca Brasil

81'

Sara Piveta← Camila Ambrózio

81'

Ketlen

85'

C. Arrieta← Clara

86'

Ketlen

88'

90+8'

C. Arrieta

90+10'

Cruzeiro

Santos

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Brasil

Neiva

Manager: Felipe Freitas

70'▲Rita Bova←▼Marília

70'▲Tipa←▼Carol Baiana

81'▲Larissa Vasconcelos←▼Byanca Brasil

81'▲Sara Piveta←▼Camila Ambrózio

85'▲C. Arrieta←▼Clara

Cruzeiro W substitutes

BovaTipaVasconcelosPivetaArrietaSoaresCaicedoGuitarrariMaiiAmaroCalhau

Manager: Kleiton Lima

46'▲Ana Carla←▼Yaya

46'▲Tainá Maranhão←▼E. Stábile

77'▲Jane←▼Thaisinha

Santos W substitutes

CarlaMaranhãoJaneSachsGomesErikinhaZiffJullyKelly

Match Recap: Cruzeiro W vs Santos W

Santos W beat Cruzeiro W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on May 6, 2023.

Goals: Byanca Brasil (3'), Tainá Maranhão (65'), Rafa Andrade (76'), Ketlen (81', 86').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.

Cruzeiro W vs Santos W — Brasileiro Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cruzeiro W vs Santos W